In May, Left of Center conducted a survey of likely Democratic voters in Philadelphia ahead of the 2023 mayoral primary election. The opportunity to gauge voter sentiment and candidate preference in a race that featured multiple credible candidates was too interesting to ignore. With the 2023 election a receding memory, we thought it was time for a rear view mirror look at our survey and evaluate what went right and what went wrong.
Identifying Gym's Decline: One aspect we got right in our survey was the assessment of Helen Gym's performance. We observed that Gym was falling in the ranks late in the cycle, and this was validated by the final results, where she secured 22% of the vote, finishing third. The then most recent public poll from the race had been conducted by Emerson College, rated A- pollster by 538 showed Gym leading the field.
Margin of Error Analysis: In our survey, Cherelle Parker came within the margin of error of winning. This proved to be an accurate assessment, as Rebecca Rhynhart’s lead in our survey (9%) was not outside the margin of error of +/- 6%.
Recognizing the Top-3 Race: Left of Center’s survey identified that the mayoral race was a top-3 contest with Rhynhart, Parker, and Gym atop the field, followed by a sizable gap, then Alan Domb, then Amen Brown. The actual results showed precisely that with Parker, Rhynhart, and Gym as the top three candidates, then an 11-point gap between the top three contenders and Domb, followed by Brown. Every one of these candidates had creditable experience in government service, no other candidate received a significant percentage of the vote.
Highlighting the Possibility of a Parker Win: We indicated in our survey report that Cherelle Parker had the potential to win the race, and if she pulled it off, it would be due to her strong support among Black voters. Parker did end up winning, and according to The Philadelphia Inquirer, the majority-Black precincts gave her 56% of the vote, while she got just 12% of the majority-white precincts. Furthermore, The Philadelphia Inquirer reported Parker won areas with more gun violence by larger margins. This is notable as our survey indicated people’s top concern by a wide margin was crime and gun control, with 54% listing one of those options as the top issue mattering most when choosing who to vote for. Parker was able to secure the advantage of those shared concerns and had geared her campaign towards it. She was seen as the most tough on crime, even saying that the controversial “stop and frisk policy” was something that needed to be revisited, despite having been a vocal opponent to the policy as recently as 2020.
Sample Size and Weighting: Also important to note is that our survey was conducted with a relatively small sample of likely Democratic primary voters. Despite this, the information gathered provided valuable insights into the race. We weighted the poll on factors such as race, gender and age. Turns out we would have been wise to include income. In that demographic breakdown The Philadelphia Inquirer reported Parker winning nearly 50% of voters making $75k or less, 25% of voter making between $75k-$100k, and just 12% of voters making $100k or more. Had we weighted the by economic status, it's likely the result would have been more aligned with Cherelle Parker's support base, which could have further informed our predictions.
Low Social Trust Voters: While fielding the survey, we observed that low social trust voters were more likely to respond via text, indicating their intention to vote for Parker but not completing the survey. This phenomenon suggests that some Parker voters may have been hesitant to engage fully in the polling process. This highlights the importance of considering non-response bias in future surveys as well as alternate ways of recording responses beyond text-to-web methods.
If there’s a perfect polling method, we have yet to see it. Our pre-election survey provided valuable insights into the 2023 Philadelphia mayoral primary race. We correctly identified key trends, such as Gym's declining support and the potential for a Parker victory. The small sample size and potential non-response bias are areas for improvement in future efforts. Overall, our survey contributed to a better understanding of voter attitudes in an important local election and suggests opportunity for future use as we navigate the polls and the path to winning more elections.
Written by Isaac Kaufer, a graduate of Washington University in St. Louis, and a popular contributer to Left of Center’s blog page. There is nothing more important than electing Democrats. Your investment will help Left of Center PAC to do exactly that.